Another weekend, another lineup of exciting Premier League games. All eyes will be on North London and the clash between Arsenal and Liverpool, but I’ve decided to look elsewhere for our weekly boosted treble and our three selected singles this weekend.
By Lars Sivertsen, Football Expert for Betsson
Boosted Treble of the week
Chelsea – Newcastle
We will start in London, but in West London where Chelsea take on Newcastle. After a slightly chaotic transfer window Chelsea have had a pretty good start to the season. Though they are a full seven points off league leaders Liverpool, but they’ve put in some very reasonable performances and the early signs are that new manager Enzo Maresca could very well turn this young group of players into a really rather good football team. Eight games in they are sixth in the table, but according to stats website Fbref.com they are fourth on xG (expected goals) difference so far – which is a perfectly respectable start to the season.
Though they’re actually just two points behind Chelsea in the table, there is a more palpable sense of frustration at Newcastle with regards to how their season has started. Hobbled by PSR concerns during the transfer window, the club were unable to reinforce the squad in the way they would have wanted, and their performances so far this season have been something of a mixed bag. Having said that, they are clearly more than a bit unfortunate to have picked up just one point from their last two games – having been the better team and
created the most chances both against Everton and against Brighton last weekend. Goalscoring has been an issue for them, but with the team scoring eight goals off an xG of 12.4 you would expect that to improve. As long as a team is creating chances, goals will usually follow.
I was tempted to back Chelsea here, but with Newcastle having played better than the scoreline suggests in both their last games I’m a little bit wary. I am instead going to look to goals. “Both teams to score” have landed in the last five Chelsea goals in all competitions,
reflecting the fact that this is a slightly front-loaded team at the moment. Cole Palmer and the much-improved Nicolas Jackson are causing a lot of trouble for their opponents, but the Chelsea defence seems to frequently cause trouble for themselves. In their best moments under Eddie Howe, Newcastle have been an aggressive and dynamic pressing team – and given Chelsea’s dogmatic insistence on building out patiently from the back I would expect to see the visitors revert to that kind of methodology here. I have little doubt that the Chelsea attack will find a way to score here, and I think Newcastle are capable of forcing Chelsea into making errors down the other end. All of which leads me to land on “both teams to score” here to start off our weekly boosted treble.
Crystal Palace – Tottenham
Next up we head to Selhurst Park, where Palace manager Oliver Glasner is under mounting pressure after a poor start to the season. Just three points in the first eight games for Palace is a big surprise given how well they finished last season. While they lost Michael Olise to Bayern Munich in the transfer window, the rest of the squad is largely intact, making this abrupt collapse in performance something of a puzzle. Olise is missed to be sure, and against Nottingham Forest in their last game it was hard to escape the sense that Eberechi Eze ends up having to try to do a lot of things on his own when Palace attack. Eze ended up taking six shots in that game, five from outside the box. A few of them went close, but it is rarely a great sign that your creator-in-chief ends up taking quite so many shots from range. Palace will be hoping summer additions such as Daichi Kamada and Eddie Nkteiah can step up and make more of an impact.
The nature of Tottenham’s collapse against Brighton a few weeks ago was so upsetting to fans that it became easy to forget the fact that it came on the back of five straight wins in all competitions. And Spurs would appear to have recovered well from the South Coast slip-up, beating West Ham last weekend and AZ in the Europa League on Thursday night. All of which means that Spurs have actually won eight out of their last 11 games in all competitions, which is not bad at all. Their underlying numbers are also quite promising. When Spurs were on a winning run this time last year, their xG numbers always suggested there was a large degree of good goalkeeping, good finishing and good fortune tilting results their way. Now Tottenham’s numbers look very strong, with the team actually creating a higher xG number in attack than any other team in the league so far this season.
Perhaps inevitably, given their style of play, their defensive numbers are not quite as stellar, but they’re not bad by any means. There are just four teams in the league who have conceded a lower xG number than Spurs so far this season, giving Spurs the second best xG difference in the division.
All of which is to say that aside from the curious second half collapse against Brighton, Spurs are playing well and getting results. And to put it very simply, Crystal Palace are doing neither of those two things. Which makes me think adding a simple Spurs win to our
weekly boosted treble is worth doing. We’re taking Spurs to win away to Palace as our second pick here.
West Ham – Manchester United
Lastly on the treble we head to the London Stadium, and a clash between two managers under pressure. Their circumstances are very different. Erik ten Hag is in his third season in charge of Manchester United, and in spite of a huge amount of money being spent on his
watch the team continues to disappoint. They were lucky to finish eight in the league last season, with the xG-numbers actually having them all the way down in 15th. Few managers of teams in European football’s mega wealthy elite will survive a disaster season like
that, but Erik ten Hag remains in charge. So far this season they are 12th in the league and 11th on xG difference, but Ten Hag insists things are moving in the right direction. Oh well.
The mood appears to be restless at West Ham as well, with new manager Julen Lopetegui not having a particularly good start to the season. There was considerable squad upheaval in the summer, with the club racking up a net spend of close to 100 million pounds. Adding players like Max Kilman, Niclas Füllkrug and Aaron Wan-Bissaka has so far failed to have a big impact. West Ham have won just two out of their first eight games this season, they have the 13th best xG difference in the league, and Lopetegui’s tactical approach to games has veered between the uninspiring and the mystifying. Crucially for West Ham, Mohamed Kudus is suspended here after losing his head against Tottenham last weekend. With Kudus suspended and the similarly gifted Lucas Paqueta starting the season poorly, West Ham should be significantly weakened as an attacking force. Füllkrug being out
injured also means they will yet again have to turn to the ageing Michail Antonio up front.
Backing Erik ten Hag’s Manchester United in any kind of way rarely feels good, but in fairness to United they have at least managed to go four games without losing since they were dismantled at home by Tottenham. Last weekend saw them beat Brentford 2-1 at home, and on Thursday night they played out an entertaining 1-1 draw against Fenerbahce in the Europa League. Goalscoring has been something of an issue for United this season, with the team scoring just seven goals in their first eight games. They have, however, produced an xG of 12.3 – suggesting that if they keep producing chances at a similar rate
then more goals should come.
This might not be pretty, but with Kudus missing I think West Ham could struggle to create chances here. United have looked a little bit more competent in recent weeks, and I think they should be able to get some kind of result here. I’m not sufficiently convinced to back an
outright United win, but I will instead add “Manchester United or draw” our weekly boosted treble.
Normally this treble would get you a price of 3.98, but Betsson have increased the odds Good luck!
Selected singles
Manchester City – Southampton
For the first of our selected singles this weekend, I’m going back to a bet that landed for us last weekend: Manchester City to win without keeping a clean sheet. City have kept just one clean sheet in their first eight games this season, and especially now with Rodri injured you have to feel that just a little bit easier to get at City right now than it has been in the past. “Easy” being a relative term here. But looking at City’s numbers on the FBref website this week, I did notice that City are conceding more through balls than they did last season and the average xG of their shots against has gone up – suggesting that their high line is a little bit more vulnerable now than it was before, and that when they do concede chances they tend to concede pretty dangerous ones.
The one factor that gave me pause before taking this bet was, well, the opposition. Southampton have just one point in their first eight games and have scored just six goals so far this season. But those six goals have come off an xG of 10.3, suggesting they have been a little bit unfortunate in front of goal. Now, those numbers are from games in which Southampton have attempted – and in some cases succeeded – at controlling possession, which will clearly not happen here. You could argue whether or not their performances against other teams in the league are a relevant data point at all for what they have to do
against Manchester City. But they do have some players who can run, most notably young winger Tyler Dibling – whose emergence has been one of the very few bits of good news coming out of Southampton so far this season.
I think it’s very possible that Manchester City rack up a big score here, but then so do the markets and so the prices on handicap wins for City are not particularly appealing to me. Instead I’m going to go in a slightly different, and perhaps slightly counter-intuitive
direction, and back Southampton to get a goal. Even if City were to bowl Southampton over and go several goals up, that could lead to some complacency and see Southampton grab a consolation goal of some kind. Betsson are offering a price of 2.44 on Manchester City to win and both teams to score, which I think is very backable when you take into account that City have just one clean sheet in their first eight games this season.
Brentford – Ipswich
For our next selected single I want to get involved in Brentford – Ipswich, for some fairly simple reasons. Brentford have been a little bit disappointing so far this season, but based on what we’ve seen from this team over the last few seasons I have a lot of confidence
that they will improve. They also tend to be very solid at home. So far this season they have three wins, one draw and no defeats at home, and during a challenging last season for them they lost very few games at home.
Ipswich have shown some spirit in their first game back in the Premier League, but their underlying numbers are ominous, especially in attack. They have so far produced the fewest shots per game in the league, and as you would expect this has translated to producing the
lowest xG in the league. They have also conceded the highest xG number in the league, and when you are producing fewer chances than everyone else and conceding more, well, then you are unlikely to win a lot of games. Their numbers are a little bit impacted by the fact that
they’ve played both Liverpool and Manchester City in their first eight games, and they did put up a reasonable performance against Aston Villa a couple of weeks ago. But in their last two games they’ve been tonked by a struggling West Ham and lost at home to Everton, which seems bad.
It’s early days but Ipswich are looking like one of the weakest, if not the weakest team in the league, and that’s no surprise really. You can back a Brentford win at a price of 1.65, and that’s perfectly fine, but I figured we’d live a little and add “under 3.5” to the mix here. Brentford to win + under 3.5 goals gets you a price of 2.65, which I think is a little generous. Ipswich create very little going forward, but I believe they have the ability to at least keep it
respectable here. I think Brentford to win + under 3.5 goals is a swing worth taking this weekend.
Crystal Palace – Tottenham
Lastly, I also want to pick up a single bet in the Crystal Palace – Tottenham gave from our weekly treble. And I can keep it short and sweet: Tottenham are looking good going forward at the minute and have created the highest xG number in the league so far this season. But
Tottenham are also not exactly impregnable at the back, which means we often see goals in their games. Six out of their eight games in the Premier League have gone “over 2.5 goals” so far this season, and I think this one will as well. Betsson are offering a price of 2.65 on
“Tottenham to win + over 2.5 goals”, which I think is worth a punt this weekend.
Good luck!
PS: Please note that the odds might have changed after writing and publication.
Last Updated: 25.10.24
